2025 packaging trends – expert predictions for the coming year

The past 5 years have seen considerable cost pressures for all businesses. COVID-19, inflation, the cost of living crisis and political uncertainty have all had an impact on demand, which, at various points, has seen costs soar.

Material prices are no different, with the cost of paper almost doubling between mid-2020 and the start of 2023.

However, there is hope that material prices, at least, will show some stability as we move into 2025. Any consistency would clearly benefit both packaging manufacturers and businesses using packaging.

The counterpoint to this is that many costs are still rising. The impact of the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) legislation, National Insurance contributions increasing from 13.8% to 15% on employees’ earnings over £5,000, another increase in the National Living Wage (by 6.7%), and interest rates hovering between 4 and 5% for most of the coming 12 months will all add to businesses’ costs.

Ironically, this may help stabilise material prices, depending on how they influence businesses’ pricing strategies and any dampening of consumer demand this could cause.

With consumers – and now the vast majority of businesses – viewing sustainability as increasingly important, there is likely to be a shift to working with local suppliers.

While most people are aware that corrugated packaging is recyclable and biodegradable, they often overlook the CO2 emissions involved in shipping it. Forward-thinking businesses can reduce their Scope 3 emissions (i.e., those they are not directly responsible for but which are counted within the supply chain) by sourcing their packaging more locally.

The growing number of companies doing so in 2025 can also expect to benefit from improved service, particularly in terms of flexibility and delivery schedules.

While the (Packaging) Extended Producer Responsibilities legislation, known as EPR, has been in place for a couple of years, October 2025 will be the first time qualifying businesses will be liable for fees. These are directly related to the amount of packaging they place onto the market (with the ease of recycling for the type of packaging/material also being factored in).

This essentially means that “producers” of packaging will be directly responsible for the cost of recovering and recycling packaging they place onto the market. Expected to add as much as £2 billion of extra costs to UK businesses, many liken this to companies effectively being penalised for the packaging they use.

However, this means businesses will be driven to reduce packaging weights and unnecessary materials in 2025. This is likely to go hand in hand with a move towards simpler, minimalist designs. This approach not only has sustainability benefits but also potentially significant cost savings.

Working with an experienced packaging designer will be crucial.

Similar to EPR legislation, the older (but still relatively new) Plastic Packaging Tax (PPT) will also affect businesses in 2025.

Rates charged as part of the scheme are to rise again, with charges from 1st April 2025 increasing to 223.69 per tonne. Up to now, this has only affected plastic packaging with less than 30% recycled content, but expected changes to this (so that only post-consumer recycled material will be counted towards this) could bring more businesses within the scope of the tax.

These changes should be a wake-up call for businesses still using unnecessary, single-use plastics in 2025. Reducing plastic use or switching to paper-based alternatives that will not compromise freshness or protection could have a large financial benefit.

While the OECD predicts growth in the UK economy of 1.7% in 2025, many factors could impact the UK economy—and packaging demand—next year.

This includes uncertainty over trading arrangements with the US following Donald Trump’s re-election, the lukewarm reaction to the first Labour budget, the Bank of England interest rates not falling as quickly as many predicted, and growing geopolitical tensions.

The flipside is a continued recovery in real household disposable incomes and improving labour market conditions.

Plus, with strong domestic demand, a return to pre-pandemic activity in key sectors, and core inflation expected to fall to 2.8% (and 2.3% in 2026), there are a number of reasons for optimism.

If these translate into increased business and consumer confidence, it could benefit both the packaging industry and the broader economy.

Artificial intelligence is clearly having a disruptive impact on many industries, but its influence on the packaging industry remains relatively limited.

While tools can now design packaging from text-based prompts, their adoption amongst design teams has been slow. Other potential benefits, such as analysing material use, sustainability, and even pack sizes, have yet to cut through either.

Where it will perhaps have an impact in 2025, is through data analysis. Analysing large amounts of data quickly and efficiently could help designers make informed decisions on the appearance of retail packaging that will resonate with shoppers and drive sales.

With the threat of trade wars, the potential introduction of tariffs, political instability in many regions and, of course, a focus on sustainability, many businesses are exploring the possibility of reshoring or nearshoring their manufacturing operations.

Whilst this provides some obvious opportunities for packaging companies, there are some less conspicuous ones, too. Key amongst this is the potential for more businesses to switch to reusable and returnable packaging.

Businesses moving their manufacturing back to Europe from the Far East could potentially begin implementing returnable packaging into their supply chain. Doing so would not only reduce their packaging costs but also drive considerable efficiencies.

Although studies suggest that consumers are ready to embrace returnable packaging, particularly for Ecommerce orders, the fact that they expect retailers to shoulder the entire cost makes this likely in the short term. The real opportunity lies with manufacturers.

However, the introduction of EPR fees could see consumer brands quickening any transition to reusable packaging.

As returnable packs would only be liable for fees when first produced, if retailers could establish reliable return transport or processes, reusable packs could quickly become more cost-effective than traditional single-trip packaging (such as corrugated packaging and poly mailers).

With FedEx forecasts suggesting that parcel carriers will collectively distribute 1.29 bn shipments across the UK between October and December 2024 – a 10.9% increase on the same period in 2023—the opportunity is clearly enormous.

However, this isn’t without its challenges, including the need to change the culture amongst consumers (the majority of whom see packaging as a disposable item). Returnable packs could also hamper personalisation efforts, which are becoming increasingly important in the current competitive climate.

Quick commerce, as many industry analysts are calling it, is the rise of faster, often same-day fulfilment. Whilst increasingly adopted by Amazon, quick commerce is also growing in grocery delivery and fashion sectors. Some predict that even one-hour delivery will become increasingly prevalent.

An increasing number of local fulfilment centres and hubs are required to support this. As these develop and mature, their requirement for advanced order-picking tactics will increase, as will their need for suitable picking bins.

With consumers demanding ever-faster delivery of their online orders, businesses with the best warehouse setup and processes could gain a distinct advantage.

A recent survey suggests that over half of UK consumers believe the packaging they receive does not have clear recycling instructions or logos. But this problem could get worse before it gets better.

Packaging used across multiple countries and regions often includes a staggering array of different logos and icons. PAP 20, TriMan, OPRL, FSC, and a range of other recycling symbols are frequently included, adding to the confusion.

The UK government has recognised this, with plans to adopt the OPRL “swoosh” from 2026. Whilst this will finally provide clarity for consumers, there are likely to be further cost implications for businesses to implement these.

Organisations have rightly been focusing on the sustainability of their products, packaging, and wider business. Consumers have also been increasingly demanding of the brands they buy from, with environmental performance now being a key differentiator for many demographics.

But this focus is likely to intensify further in 2025.

Many businesses outlined ambitious targets earlier in the decade, with the timescale for achieving these often set for 2030. Being halfway towards this deadline should focus companies to ensure they can achieve their goals.

The alternative – watering down the targets or pushing back deadlines – can lead to poor PR and consumer backlash (as even some household names are discovering).

Regarding aesthetics, 2025 may see a further shift towards simple, accessible typefaces and minimal designs. This aesthetic is actually perfect for helping convey the simpler, less material-intensive approach that some businesses will take to their packaging as they strive to become more sustainable.

Besides this, using attention-grabbing text and typefaces can provide real impact whilst also assisting with accessibility (brands should, of course, prioritise clear, legible text for improved inclusivity).

There could also be a shift from soft, natural colours typically used to convey eco-friendliness (such as greens, whites and browns) to bolder colours as packaging sustainability becomes more widely expected.

With the pressure on consumer spending, shoppers appear to be buying less overall, but the quality of items they do purchase is higher.

While this intensifies competition in many sectors, an increasing number of businesses could consider adding value to their packaging. One way to do this is to use plastic cases.

Designed to be retained by the end user to store products, plastic cases are already popular in DIY and medical sectors. This trend, however, could easily extend to collectables, toys and games, and even electronic goods. Although more costly, when combined with a cardboard sleeve, such packs can convey high quality and added value that could tempt consumers to purchase.

The drive for sustainability is becoming increasingly prevalent among businesses using foam packaging. While this is less of a concern for those using Plastazote-type inserts—designed to be used over many years—single-trip foam is increasingly being targeted.

Stratocell and Ethafoam options are now available in recycled grades, improving their sustainability and, in many cases, exempting them from the plastic packaging tax. Yet, while steps are being taken to improve recycling rates, these materials are still not always collected in kerbside schemes.

There was considerable hope at the beginning of 2024 that recyclable and biodegradable foam would be coming to the market, but this has proved to be a false dawn. However, there are materials in development (particularly Stora Enso Papira) that may finally crack this elusive requirement.

Although there are likely to be challenges in 2025, there are clearly a huge number of opportunities for businesses to use their packaging to engage customers, improve sustainability, and even reduce costs.

If our experts’ predictions of 2025 packaging trends hold true, businesses could leverage their packaging to provide real competitive advantages.

If you are excited by the opportunities or concerned by the challenges of the predicted packaging trends in 2025, please get in touch. Our experts are on hand to help guide your business and ensure that your packaging provides a real benefit.